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Why Super Bowl Weekend is a Tell-Tale Sign for Housing Market

February 13, 2023

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It’s often the calendar marker for how the full year will go, but maybe not this year.

Even the housing market has reason to track the Super Bowl.

In a report, last week, online real estate brokerage Redfin said that “by Super Bowl weekend, we usually have a good idea how a given year’s housing market will play out. But this year is anything but typical.”

Its economics research lead Chen Zhao said in prepared remarks, “This year is more uncertain than most because the effects of last year’s rapid rate hikes are still flowing through the economy, and we’re not sure how much more the Fed will raise rates this year.

“So even after the Super Bowl comes and goes, we’ll be closely monitoring the Fed’s words and actions, along with inflation rates and indicators about the health of the labor market for signals that could affect homebuyer demand.”

Choosing Sides

On offense, pending home sales posted their smallest decline since September during the four weeks ending Feb. 5, falling 20% from a year earlier, and mortgage-purchase applications rose 3% from a week earlier.

On defense, 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose last week and it’s a coin flip to which direction they might go next.

When not messing with ChatGPT inquiries, Google searches for “homes for sale” were up about 38% from their November low during the week ending Feb. 4 but are down 23% YoY.

More homes are hitting the market to meet increasing demand; new listings dropped 17% from a year earlier – the smallest decline in over four months.

Additionally, active listings were up 22.6% from a year earlier.

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